Month: August 2023

(The original text was published on January 31. The author is Kirk Goldsberry, an ESPN data expert. The content of the article does not represent the translator’s point of view.) In the near future, perhaps sometime next week, LeBlanc James will make one of the most meaningful shots or free throws in NBA history. With this basketball entry, the 38-year-old superstar will surpass Karim-Abdul-Jabal and become the new historical scoring champion of NBA league regular season. This is a great achievement, because it is not enough to have extraordinary scoring talent, but also need to have a lasting and healthy career. Since Jabbar, we have never seen such a player in professional basketball except James. He is one of the best players in NBA league in the past 20 years. James was the top player in 2003. During his 20 long NBA seasons, his scoring skills have been continuously improving. From his shooting chart, we can see how the teenager who didn’t have a reliable jump shot could enter the league and finally scored more than all other NBA players. 2003-04 season: real Cainiao Although James won the honor of the league’s best rookie with a beautiful average of nearly 21 points in the 2003-04 season, his scoring efficiency is not high. Among the 46 players who made at least 1,000 shots that year, James ranked 41st in effective field goal percentage. It can be seen from the shooting chart of his rookie season that James’s jump shot rate is lower than the average level, while the score rate in the penalty area is very high. Such scoring methods and scoring efficiency show no sign that he will one day surpass Jabbar on the total scoring list. According to our current criteria for judging excellent scorers, there are three unqualified data in James rookie season: 1. When 74 NBA players shot 200 times in three points in the season, James ranked the last third among these players with a percentage of 29%, which was only better than Jason Richard Sen and Antoine Walker. 2. When there were 126 players in NBA, the number of mid-distance shots reached 200 times, James hit 119 out of these players by 33.2 percent. 3. When 114 NBA players shot 200 times in the penalty area in the season, James ranked 72 out of the 57.5 percent hit rate. In Cainiao season, James’s field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage and real field goal percentage are all the lowest in his career. But he will make progress soon. 2004-05 season: in progress In the second year of entering the league, James began to show his iconic advantage as a scorer: super high scoring efficiency in the penalty area. James’s ability to score internally is the biggest reason why he is destined to surpass Jabbar. In the rookie season, he ranked 11th in the league in the penalty area; In the second year, he ranked third. This helped him increase his average score from 20.9 to 27.2, which happened to be the average score of his career. In his third year in the league, when he got the highest 31.4 points in his career, James ranked second in the league inside shooting, second only to Shaquille O’Neal, at that time, the latter could still play the most dominant internal basketball in the league in history. 2007-08 season: Scoring King From the point of view of scoring, the long rising process of “peak LeBlanc” includes learning how to use his speed, strength and skills to get good shooting opportunities, and finally convert these opportunities into scores. In the 2007-08 season, 23-year-old James won his only scoring title at present. When he scored 794 goals in the season, 55.4 percent of the goals were completed in the penalty area. Although he won the title of scoring king, his jump shot scoring efficiency is still not high. That season, he had 964 jump shots, with a hit rate of 33.1 percent. In the first seven seasons of Cleveland, he has realized his great potential. When he left the Cavaliers, he won the MVP twice in a row. In the 2008-09 season, he led the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and cap. It is a very comprehensive and magical personal performance, but it also proves that his teammates cannot provide more help. Because the Cavaliers’ lineup was too thin, James had to make a change. Heat period After James brought his talent to Miami, he really entered his own peak era. The three giants also need to adapt to each other when playing together, but when James is used to playing with Chris Bosh and de Vien-Wade, he can trust his teammates, and reduced unreasonable jump shots and reluctant shots. In this way, his scoring efficiency has been greatly improved. James’s last two seasons in Miami were also the only two years in his career where the average number of games was less than 18. With extremely high scoring efficiency, he helped the Heat team win 27 consecutive victories in the regular season in 2012-13 season and won the NBA championship for two consecutive years. From the perspective of pure scoring efficiency, his shooting chart in this period may be the best. In the 2012-13 season, James’s penalty area scoring efficiency was still very high, and his jump shot data was better than ever. This is the only time he hit more than 40% in a season, and his mid-range data is also very good. He ended that season with his second championship. In addition to Ray Allen’s unforgettable three-point goal at the bottom corner, James’s most important shot in the memorable finals G7 was 27 seconds left in the game, james made the Heat team a 4-point lead in the jump shot 19 feet from RIM. In that game, he made 5 out of 10 shots in three points and 4 out of 10 jump shots in two points. The Spurs chose to put James on the outside line to shoot, and he really defeated his opponent on the outside line. James’s jump shot efficiency in the past 20 seasons During Miami, James didn’t need to take a big deal at the offensive end. He learned to play without a ball, and he was more selective and purposeful in attacking choices. Playing in such a team is indeed enviable, because efficiency is not only related to personal ability, but also to your teammates. While James’s data soared to a new height, those who studied James also noticed his low usage rate, high efficiency and smart shooting choices. This is the result of James’s combination of his understanding of basketball and his personal talent since he entered NBA for ten years. James in the heat period showed the best physical condition, the highest basketball IQ and the best game state. When James left Miami in 2014, he was already an 11-year veteran of the league, winning two championship trophy and four MVP. In spite of this, his total score in the regular season was only 23170 points, 15217 points short of Jabbar’s score record. Return Knight As a scorer, James really hit his peak in Miami, but the duration of this peak period is really amazing. His ability to keep healthy is unbelievable, and his inside shooting efficiency has not declined with age, which is the most fundamental reason why James will eventually break the Jabbar scoring record. In the 10 seasons from 2008-09 to 2017-18, James ranked first in the NBA penalty list six times. In the last season in Cleveland, he scored an amazing 534 goals in the penalty area. 534 was the highest number of goals scored in the penalty area in James’s career, which was also the highest since the 1999-00 season. O’Neal scored 571 goals in the penalty area that year. At that time, O’Neal was recognized as the most dominant insider scorer on the planet. Besides, no one could do better than James in the forbidden zone. When Stephen Curry and James Harden changed professional basketball in an unprecedented three-point way, James was using the most traditional way to launch an impact on Jabbar’s scoring record-ruling the inside line. Although James may never be able to compare with Curry in terms of three-point goals (although James has already hit 2222 three-point goals and ranked ninth in history), this is not important. Because James’s inside shooting is as threatening as Curry’s three points. Lakers Today’s James is no longer the same as before. This season, James’s average penalty area score can still rank sixth in the league, which is still his most important scoring method. However, his jump shot has also changed greatly. With the change of NBA game style, James’s two-point shots in the non-penalty area decreased by nearly one third, replaced by three-point shots. James’s average jump shot distance in the rookie season was 15.7 feet, compared with 22.5 feet last season, which was closer to three point line. James didn’t stick to his career to break Jabbar’s scoring record, just like Curry broke Ray Allen’s three-point record last season, they all surpassed their predecessors in a normal state of competition. James averaged 36.1 points in the first 11 games when he was 38 years old, which was not like Jabbar’s ability to score double in his 20th season, it is not like Jordan’s playing average of 20 points in the 2003-03 season of Washington Wizards. Therefore, James will definitely raise this record to an unprecedented height. Let’s wait and see. Active players Score and Play Time Top 100 From the picture above, we can see that no active player can approach James in scoring and playing time. The historical scoring record of regular season matches is not only about players’ scoring ability, but also about players’ lasting and healthy career. In the 76-year history of NBA, only 7 people played 50000 minutes or more in the regular season, and only one active player was James. The other six people are: Jabbar, Malone, Nowitzki, Garnett, Kidd and Elvin-hyes. Although Durant, Harden and Curry may have more scoring talents than James, they cannot maintain a long and healthy career like James. Therefore, it is difficult for any active player to surpass James in terms of scoring and playing time. When James finally retired, he was likely to not only keep the record of NBA regular season, but also break the record of regular season appearance that was also maintained by Jabbar. James played 53592 minutes in the regular season, and Jabbar kept a regular season record of 57446 minutes, with a difference of 3854 minutes. Any superstar who wants to surpass his scoring record must have his unprecedented ability to keep healthy and productive in these 20 years. It is hard to imagine this happening, especially in the current load management era. Among the 29 players who played the most in NBA history, James ranked first every 36 minutes. He scored more than 2000 points in 10 single seasons. His lowest score in a single season was 1126 points. At that time, injuries and coronavirus shortened the competition period, and he only played 45 games. Unless he announced his retirement earlier than expected, we have reason to believe that James’s regular season score will reach 40000 points next season. James’s career has reached the 20th season. When can the time old man stop James and how high can James improve the record of regular season history? We will wait together. (Note: the data in this article is as of January 31, US time.) Original: Kirk Goldsberry Compilation: Former city owner Discussion & Analysis